And how many people are actually using it?

I have never considered using Threads for any kind of social marketing. Out of Meta’s products, I’m pushing content to Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, but something about Threads has always put me off.

Curious, I decided to do some research to see if my gut instinct about Threads was correct.

The rapid decline of Threads

At it’s peak at launch in July 2023, Threads saw 100 million sign-ups in 5 days, the fastest app to ever achieve this milestone. On July 7th 2023, Meta reported 49.3 million daily active users.

As of January 2024, a mere 6 months later, the estimated DAU (daily active users) was around 10.3 million (that’s a 79% decrease). User engagement also decreased significantly, with the average daily time spent on the app dropping from 21 minutes to just 3 minutes.

So what happened here? Why did it see the biggest sign up rate in the history of apps, and within 6 months such a significant decline in interest? It’s backed by Meta, and Meta may be a lot of things, but they’re more than experienced in the social media arena.

The first question that springs to my mind is “do users want yet another ephemeral messaging app?”. I certainly don’t, but I likely don’t fall into the list of personas that Meta had in mind (being a 40-something year old software engineer).

However, I think it is important to note that Threads doesn’t really offer anything that you won’t find on other, more established platforms. So what’s the unique value proposition?

My research highlights that there may have been potential privacy concerns. Having to sign up with an Instagram account may have left users wary of data sharing across platforms. Additionally, the ephemeral nature of messages left users unsure about data retention and control.

Threads also felt distinctly lacking in features. There’s an absence of diverse content categories, focusing mainly on close friends and personal updates. Something that can be fulfilled by pretty much any other flavour of social app on the market right now.

There’s also a complete vacuum of news, political discussions, or broader community engagement, limiting its appeal to many users. For me, it makes the ecosystem feel quiet. Posting on there felt more like shouting into a cave than interacting with a social app. It’s got the distinct feel of an echo chamber, not helped by the substantially low number of users compared to it’s competitors.

Timing wise, I’m not convinced that Meta really hit the nail on the head with their design for Threads either, and this is surprising considering their wealth of understanding of social media.

The growing popularity of short-form video platforms like TikTok and, to some extent, Instagram, offered a more engaging and dynamic experience compared to Threads’ photo-sharing focus. It’s as though they’ve taken a step backwards and created a lightweight version of Instagram with the look and feel of X (formerly Twitter).

Many celebrities and influencers initially joined Threads, but quickly migrated back to established platforms with larger user bases and wider reach once they realised that they just weren’t getting the same level of engagement. Why waste energy on a platform that isn’t offering you any noticeable returns?

Without influencers on the platform, that’s one less thing to capture user attention. If you combine that with a total absence of news and community content, it’s no surprise that users abandoned it in their droves.

I also get the impression that Meta really aren’t giving it any love. Their primary attention seemed to be on developing Instagram and integrating features similar to Threads within it. Raising, again, the question — what was the point of releasing Threads in the first place?

Maybe they were anticipating that X would fail after Elon Musk bought it in April 2022, and that it’s user base would migrate onto Threads in the aftermath? This is the only purpose for it that I can think of. It would certainly explain the similarities, in both functionality and interface.

Enough of my esoteric musings on the matter, let’s look at some actual data and compare how Threads looks against it’s competitors.

Comparison of Threads’ user base with other social media platforms

Notes on the above data

• User base numbers are estimates and can vary depending on source.
• Threads’ user base is significantly smaller than all other listed platforms.
• Whilst similar in platform formats, Threads focuses on close friends and ephemeral messaging, while X offers a wider range of content and real-time updates.
• Instagram offers more diverse content and influencer marketing opportunities, but with potential downsides like curated feeds and privacy concerns.
• Facebook has the largest user base but struggles with declining younger users and privacy concerns.
• TikTok caters to Gen Z with its engaging short-form video format, but raises data privacy concerns.

What’s in store for the future of Threads?

It’s a real challenge to try and discern the fate of Threads in the long run. On the one hand, it holds the record for the fastest user sign up in history. It’s also seen a mass exodus of those users with the fraction that remain spending a mere 3 minutes a day on the platform.

Personally, I’d give it a “do-not-resuscitate” order and call it a day. However, in the spirit of balance, and because I can’t foresee the outcome, let’s take a look at both the optimistic and pessimistic result.

Optimistically…

• Meta invests in significant feature additions, introducing unique functionalities beyond ephemeral messaging, like group chats, live streaming, or integration with other platforms.
• Meta incentivizes and retains high-profile users who actively engage with the platform, driving discoverability and user growth.
• Threads carves out a niche as a platform for specific user groups or interests, creating a dedicated and engaged community.
• It expands beyond close friends, allowing broader content categories like news, entertainment, or creator tools, attracting a wider user base.

Pessimistically…

• Meta continues focusing resources on developing Instagram and other core platforms, leaving Threads neglected and under-maintained, resulting in:
• A lack of significant updates and feature additions lead to user boredom and migration to other platforms.
• New or existing platforms offer more engaging features and experiences, attracting users away from Threads.
• Meta decides Threads isn’t strategically important and either sells it or shuts it down altogether.

In conclusion

Threads’ future depends on Meta’s commitment to development, addressing user concerns, and differentiating itself from competitors. It needs to adapt, innovate, and capture the attention of users in a dynamic and competitive environment.

If Meta doesn’t take action on this, I can’t help but see the fate of Threads being they quietly switch it off without anyone really noticing.

I am leaning on the pessimistic side of the outcomes, and certainly won’t be recommending it as a subject of consideration for my clients. Maybe Meta will pull it out of the bag and turn it into something worthwhile. Or maybe it’ll fade away without fanfare and be forgotten as quickly as it arrived.